作者：伯纯 来源：原创 发布日期：08-21
A | The next round of indirect talks between Iran and the United States will take place in Doha, Qatar instead of the usual venue of Vienna, and will occur sometime within the next few days, the Iranian Students’ News Agency reported on Monday.,“It is expected that negotiations over reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will be held in the coming days in Doha by Iran, the US and EU’s delegations,” ISNA indicated in a report on Iranian Ambassador to Qatar Hamidreza Dehghani’s meeting with Qatari Deputy Foreign Minister Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi.,Mohammad Marandi, a media advisor to Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani, confirmed to ISNA that the indirect talks, facilitated by the European Union, would take place in the Qatari capital, and said Iran “has chosen Qatar to host the talks because of Doha’s friendly ties with Tehran.”,In a press conference earlier Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh confirmed that a new round of talks on the JCPOA would take place this week, and that “one of the countries in the Persian Gulf will host” them. “The ball is in Washington’s court. If they come up with an answer, an agreement would be reached,” he said.,A source told Reuters that US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley will arrive in Qatar on Monday, and that the talks could take place Tuesday and Wednesday.,Iran Asks to Join BRICS17:19 GMT,The renewed negotiations, and at a venue besides Vienna, where Iran, other JCPOA members, and the United States have spent over a year discussing the restoration of the 2015 nuclear deal, comes amid media reports of behind-the-scenes agreements on a range of issues of concern to Tehran.,Iran has long insisted that the US remove its illegal sanctions against Tehran and the Islamic Republic’s elite Revolutionary Guard security forces from its ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization’ watch list. Progress in this direction appeared to have been made last week, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas issuing a joint notice Thursday announcing the lifting a blanket ban on Iranian nationals who served in the IRGC as part of their military service from entering the US.,On Sunday, Ynet reported that senior Israeli defense officials had broken from Tel Aviv’s long-held opposition to the JCPOA, and expressed support for its revival. The outlet’s sources indicated that Mossad, which successfully lobbied the Trump administration into scrapping the nuclear deal in 2018, continues to oppose the agreement.,Separately on Sunday, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Tel Aviv had relented on a US-negotiated deal to allow for the delivery of Iranian oil supplies to Syria. If accurate, the report would be a stark break from Israel’s previous policy, which has included efforts to sabotage tankers carrying emergency energy supplies to Syria as the US continues its occupation of the oil-rich third of the war-torn country.,Israel May Agree to ‘US-Brokered Deal’ for Iran Oil to be Shipped to Syria - Media09:40 GMT,Last week, Saeed Khaitibzadeh indicated that Tehran remains committed to JCPOA negotiations, notwithstanding the Biden White House’s pursuit of hostile policies similar to those of its predecessor. “In spite of all American violations and the continuation of Trump’s approach, this train has not yet derailed,” he said. “We are ready for a good, lasting and effectual agreement and consider that all grounds are prepared to achieve it.”。 最近中东这边爆出一个大瓜，消息传得铺天盖地，结果短短一天时间，剧情直接来了个大反转。 前一天黎巴嫩一家电视台放出消息，说伊朗已经收到正式邀请，可以加入沙特、土耳其、巴基斯坦刚刚签完的《麦加共同防御协议》，伊朗高层还正在研究这件事。消息一出，网上一下子就炸开锅了。
B | 千万别小看这份刚签下来的协议，它最核心的一条规则，就是集体防御。简单来讲，只要对其中任意一个签约国发动武装进攻，就等同于跟所有签约国全部开战。如果伊朗真的顺利加入进去，后续美国、以色列要是打算对伊朗动手，就不再仅仅是和伊朗一国的冲突，沙特、土耳其、巴基斯坦都会被裹挟进来。光是想想这个局面，就足以搅动整个中东的局势。
C | 就在不少人开始推演中东格局要彻底改写的时候，伊朗外交部的发布会直接给火热的舆论浇了一盆冷水。外交部发言人公开表态，伊朗并没有收到这份正式的加入邀请。
D | 不过这句话并不是把话说得完全封死。
E | 发言人还补充了很值得琢磨的内容：虽然没有拿到正式的邀请函，但伊朗已经和麦加协议的几个成员国展开对话，并且主动提出了不少关于地区安全的相关建议。 言下之意，各方确实坐下来聊过地区安全合作这件事，只是还没有走到发出正式邀请那一步，谈判的这扇门依旧敞开，只是还没到落地的时候。 除此之外，现场还有一番表态也很有指向性。伊朗方面称，只要别的国家不去给美国、以色列的军事行动提供便利，那就完全不用惧怕伊朗。
F | 同时伊朗强调，按照国际法，反击侵略源头，是伊朗理所应当拥有的权利，这番话针对的对象，明眼人都看得出来。 这份《麦加共同防御协议》是8月7日，由沙特王储、土耳其总统、巴基斯坦总理三方，在麦加共同签署。除了遭遇攻击共同应对之外，协议还约定各方要加深军事协作，推进国防工业的联合项目。外界普遍认为，这份协议本身，就是一次重塑中东安全格局的重要尝试。 那最开始那条“收到邀请”的消息，又是从哪里冒出来的？ 消息源头来自黎巴嫩电视台转述伊朗议会通讯社社长的发言。
G | 议会通讯社本身属于伊朗的官方媒体，社长这个级别出来对外发声，肯定不是随口瞎说。 这就带来一种猜想：会不会是内部确实在探讨相关可能性，先通过半官方的媒体渠道放出口风，试探外界、美国以及协议三国的反应。
H | 但内部讨论归讨论，外交流程层面的正式邀请，确实还没有送到伊朗外交部手上，所以才会出现议会方面放出风声，外交部又出面澄清的有趣场面。
I | 透过这场新闻风波，其实能读懂各方心里真实的盘算。
J | 站在伊朗的角度，它太需要一份外部安全背书。未来如果要和美国坐到谈判桌上，仅仅依靠口头承诺，伊朗很难放下戒备。假如能够借助麦加协议拿到第三方的安全保障，那么在谈判桌上，伊朗的底气会足很多。
K | 而沙特、土耳其、巴基斯坦三方，同样有着自己的考量。沙特希望地区局势能够降温，不想持续陷在冲突泥潭；土耳其想要进一步扩大自己在中东地区的话语权；巴基斯坦和沙特关系紧密，同时也不愿意把伊朗彻底推向对立面。如果能把伊朗拉进同一个安全对话框架，对他们来说，也是向外界传递独立于美国之外的地区声音。 短短不到二十四小时，新闻从“伊朗收到邀请”变成“没有正式邀请函”，反转来得很快，但这不代表双方的接触就是空穴来风。罗生门背后可以确定一件事：伊朗和这三个国家，确实在就地区安全问题进行沟通。
L | 至于后续能不能迈出更大一步，伊朗能不能真正走进这个合作框架，还需要继续观望。麦加协议的大门没有彻底关上，只是目前，还没有为伊朗完全敞开。返回，查看更多。
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Published on:21:34:55